The Fundamental Core

The macro read, before the chart.

A macro-fundamental engine that turns free public data into a directional bias for G10 FX across structural, tactical, and intraday horizons, with positioning and invalidation built in. It's the answer to why price should move, so the levels you trade have a reason behind them.

What it produces

For every G10 pair, a clean multi-horizon bias with the thesis, the drivers behind it, how the crowd is positioned, and the one release that would prove it wrong. No signals to follow, just a structured way to see the macro so your own decision is an informed one.

FREDECBBLSEurostatONSBoEStatCanIMFOECDWorld BankCFTC (COT)BEA

Built entirely on free, public macro data. No black box, no paid feeds.

EUR / USDSampleRegime · Risk-on
Structural · 3mLEAN LONG60%
Tactical · 1mNEUTRAL45%
Intraday · 15mLEAN LONG55%
Key drivers
ECB terminal repricing higher · US growth surprise fading · EUR favored in 3 of 4 convergent pairs
COT positioning
Leveraged funds net-long EUR, roughly +1σ vs. its 1-year range
Invalidation
EU flash PMI < 47 flips the tactical read short
Illustrative example of the engine’s output, not a live signal and not financial advice.

How it reads the market

01

Regime first

Every read starts with the risk backdrop (risk-on, transition, or risk-off), drawn from VIX, credit spreads, and equities. It sizes everything downstream.

02

Two horizons, scored

A structural (3-month) scorecard of slow fundamentals and a tactical (1-month) scorecard weighted to leading indicators. Each carries a bias, a conviction, and its key driver.

03

Convergence

A currency's bias only counts when it shows up across the pairs it should. The engine reads the whole G10 matrix, not one chart in isolation.

04

Positioning + invalidation

COT positioning overlays the fundamentals (is the crowd already there?), and every bias ships with the data release that would flip it.

Get it at launch.

The engine is built and tested; the in-product dashboard is being wired for members. Leave your email and we’ll tell you the moment the Fundamental Core goes live.

The Fundamental Core is research and education, not signals or financial advice. See our Risk Disclosure.